Archive for November, 2012

Black Napkins Friday…..

23/11/2012

 

 

Gotta get your jump on Zappadan NOW, before it is too late and all of the black napkins are gone and the central scrutinizer has his terpsicorian ejectumenti aimed at your tiny little snow crystals with the flora and the fauna who wanna hum the dynamo with the jockey on the lawn of the Easter hay watermelon eating contest….

Can We End the War Against Islam Now?

14/11/2012
I love it, I don't want it to be over....

I love it, I don’t want it to be over….

I skipped the SSSR meetings in Joe Arpaio territory this year and instead went to a big cyclocross race in Louisville. We found ourselves sharing the hotel with the Nuns on the Bus. The Catholic Social Justice group was at the Galt House along with a bunch of skinny freaks who race cyclocross, and it was kind of fun. They were an active and engaging bunch, and it was clear that they had some understanding that moral values aren’t just crotch-level issues.  I don’t believe in their gods, but these women were cool. There’s nothing like having drinks with a bunch of octogenarian liberal nuns at midnight on a Saturday! One thing it left me thinking about was ….oh, yeah, Justice. And, one thing the nuns are big on is ending the war against Islam.

Now that the Kenyan Usurper Muslim has once again been democratically elected as the totalitarian communist homosexual ruler of the United States, I was kind of hoping that maybe he’d end this war on Islam thing, since he is supposed to be a devout Muslim. It may be easier now that Hillary Rodham is stepping down—I never liked her foreign policy, or her domestic policy. She’s always just one notch or two away from what needs to be done, as old Vlad used to say. And, it probably doesn’t hurt that General Betrayus got caught poking not one, but TWO identical brunettes. Nice job. Thank you for your service! And, I guess the current General in charge of the war against Islam was also boinking one of these women who had a fetish for  aging warriors? War pigs are sick little puppies. But, what else are you going to do in a wasteland with no hope, just boink each other. Or, maybe, we could LEAVE, and go back to Florida, and boink each other.  The warped values of war are hard to fathom, and it’s disturbing that people somehow think that fucking a couple of people  to whom he isn’t married is Betrayus’ cardinal sin.

As a modest proposal in the wake of the renunciation of conservatism and the debauchery of military tyrants, can we abandon military activism in the Middle East and engage in a realistic policy to reduce human suffering? Start out by a complete embargo on arms to the entire region—Israel included. We need to talk to Turkey about Syria. That’s their baby. We need to reduce sanctions against Iran. The more the Iranian people like us, the more the religious nutjobs lose. We need to close Gitmo and send most of its occupants back to their home countries immediately. We need to confront the totalitarian regimes in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and promote real democracy—or at least not help prevent it. And we need to back off the developing polities in Libya, Tunisia, Egypt and elsewhere. The less involved we are, the better we will be viewed by all parties contending for control. Duh.

Most immediately, we need to end the drone warfare in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Iran and elsewhere, and we need to reduce the political influence of the military contractors who have promoted the endless war against Islam. Procurement budgets for the Pentagon need to be cut by 50% or more. At the same time, we should eliminate all military aid to the Middle East, along with the embargo of American arms sales to those nations. You can’t slaughter your population if you don’t have nice cool American goodies. And, our exit from the market will dramatically increase the cost of Chinese and Russian substitutes. Fewer guns, fewer bodies.

The Commodification of Public Opinion Part III: Why Obama Will Win Big Edition

04/11/2012
I feel the Pulse of the Populace, I can feel it!

I feel the Pulse of the Populace, I can feel it!

The last week of the 2012 election cycle has seen a last gasp effort by Republican whores to claim that projections of an Obama win are based on flimsy evidence, with the additional claim that adjustments to these biases would show a solid Romney lead. The first claim is true. I bet Nate Silver $1000 that his bullshit method has no scientifically valid basis–and the only way he could achieve “validity” is through the admonishments of his equally tainted “public opinion” peers. Heaping shit on top of shit gives you a load of shit. On average, if you heap together shit, it doesn’t equal filet mignon. The Central Limit Theorem is not something to be fucked with, nor can we reinterpret it to act as if bullshit polls conducted by fly-by-night beltway bandits (with surly minimum wage workers asking the questions, no less) somehow amount to random samples of the American voting population. They are not.  The BEST polling organizations like Gallup and Pew now admit they are polling fewer than 9% of targeted respondents. The crap Nate Silver is stewing together includes polls which don’t even bother keeping track of such things. They aren’t even probability samples, since they have no denominator to calculate the likelihood of being in the sample.

It is good that some are questioning the quality of data from these whore polls, but there is minimal reflection on why these bullshit polls became profitable, much less how they have had a negative impact on real social scientific research. Bullshit research makes real research even more difficult. And, the noise about what is happening TODAY creates an ADHD mentality that privileges new information over good information. That plays into the hands of people like Silver, who never could cut the mark in real academics. But, now he doesn’t have to. He just makes shit up, and gets paid.

But, while little Nate is a complete whore, he’s right about his projection. Obama will win, and win big. It has nothing to do with any of the poll voodoo bullshit. Instead, the best track is to look at the highest quality polls (probably Gallup) and then think about where the biases fall. Who, in this day and age, answers their fucking phone for a stranger? The answer is almost uniformly “old people and nutcases.” So, these polls may be a random sample of the elderly and nutcases, who are about split on Obama versus Romney. Young people, Brown People, people with professional jobs and higher education, they don’t answer their phones unless you have the special ring. Last election is the best predictor of this election, and I think the Republicans will do even worse with Romney Ryan than they did with McCain Palin.
Sleep well.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/who-responds-to-telephone-polls-anymore–20120719